Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Analyzing the 2010 Draft; 6 Years Later

The 2010 amateur draft took place September 1st, 2010 towards the end of the then VBL6's 1st season in existence.  A lot of people like to put grades on drafts the minute they happen, but taking a 6 year window and looking back is a much better way to grade.  As we are just a month away from the 2016 amateur draft, let's look back at that 2010 draft, see all the potential that has come out, find our busts, steals and overall....let's see what happened.  The 2010 draft is FILLED with hitters who are scattered all over the BSA.

First off, there was ALOT of talent taken in our first amateur draft, many of today's stars came right here out of that draft.  Where else to start but #1 overall.  The then Eugene franchise, who is now Reno, selected SP Tommy Connare, who did have extreme upside.  He never did learn a dominant 3rd pitch and has had up and downs as a SP, who is now a main cog in the Los Cabos bullpen.  Not a bust, but didn't live up to #1 pick hype.

The first hitter taken, and the #2 pick in the draft was Mr. John Doby by Vista, and he is still with the team.  At times Doby has been dominant posting career numbers of .291/.407/.488.  Doby's problems have been injuries and staying on the field though.  In 4+ BSA seasons the most games he has played in a season is 127.

Now look break down that first round and find the steal and bust of the round. 

The hitter steal of the first round falls to Jersey at 21 in 2B Mike Bryant.  Bryant is a 2 time All Star, has finished 2nd in MVP voting 2 seasons in a row.  He leads all players in the draft class in HR, RBI, BA, SLG and OPS.

For every steal there is a bust, and unfortunately for Jacksonville that pick came at pick 6.  Chris Dawson a powerful 1B out of UNC looked to be at the time a cornerstone at 1B for Jacksonville for the next 12-15 years, but after 3 years in the minors he was traded to Baffin where he would play AAA ball until last year before seeing some action.  While he still has talent, at 28 years old with only 6 HR and 21 RBI to his BSA career, at this point he is my first round bust of a hitter.

Other players of note drafted in the first round include OF Carlos Perez (3rd), OF Stu Wilson (8th), C Bryan Sandstrom (9th), OF Al Burrill (11th), OF Antonio Sanchez (17th), IF Tom Jacobson (18th), 3B Luis Alou (19th), OF Rocky Anderson (22nd), and OF Porter Standford (28th).

On the pitching side of things things were a little bit more clouded.  Even though Cy Young winner Steve Haynes was picked at #10, my steal of the first round is SP Greg Casey, pick 24, by San Fransisco.  The flame thrower spent his first big league season notching 34 saves as the SF closer before being moved to a starter and eventually traded to Hendersonville.  Haynes and Casey have matching career records of 44-37.

As for the bust for pitching in the first round, my pick is Rob King, pick 12, by then Somerton out of the Univ. of Georgia.  King never became that front line starter Somerton had envisioned and didn't make the big league club until 2013 with New orleans, going 0-6 in 11 starts with an ERA of 7.11.  He now pitches in the Toronto Titan's system at the A ball level.

Other pitchers of note in the first round include: Richard White (4th) and Ross Holley (7th).

Drafts are not won in the first round, they are usually the safe picks.  Drafts are won by finding those gems in the later rounds.  Here's what we found in the 2nd round:

All-Star Catcher Gernot Renner (2nd Round, 6th pick), breakout star OF Domingo Martinez (2nd Round, 11th), former 40 HR man OF Ghebru Olatunji (2nd, 15), CF Jose Estrada (2nd, 19), 2015 ROY 3B/SS Adam Morrow (2nd, 21), and Boston setup man Horace Thomas (2nd, 16th).

The 3rd round is where I find 3 of my Top 5 steals of the overall draft though.  How these guys fell so far, no one might ever know.  Round 3, pick 14 3B Bryce Hester.  Hester leads all players in hits from the 2010 draft class and who has been traded 4 times since being drafted.  At pick 27 in Round 3, Kansas City selected 1B Tony Marin.  Marin was released by KC before he had the chance to get much playing time and proved everyone he was a player when he hit .323 with 46 HR and 139 last season and finished 2nd in MVP voting.

In a very mundane pitching class the biggest steal of the draft might be then Oklahoma, now Toronto's pick, the 7th pick of the 3rd round.  They selected a SP by the name of Mike Haward.  Haward is an All Star and a 2 time champion with Hendersonville who leads all pitchers of the 2010 class in wins with 55.

In the 4th round Jersey found in a gem in Russell "The Muscle" Phillips with pick 21 in the round.  Phillips was later traded to Sacramento, then to Niagara Falls where he broke out last year with his 40 HR campaign and looks like a legit slugger.

The 4th round also is where current Greenville closer Jorge Valentin was taken by then Sunnyvalle, now New York.   In 161 career innings he has an ERA of 2.62 with 30 saves.

In Round 5 with the 10th pick then Haddonfield, now Indy, selected OF Todd Church.  Church's first year as a regular was in 2015 where he busted out hitting .327 with 166 hits and 30 doubles for the Lions.

My last gem of the draft was found in Round 7.  The 13th pick of the round the then Long Beach Havens, selected out of Oklahoma 1B/OF Robbie McLaughlin.  McLaughlin is known as having one of the best eyes in the game combined with good contract and 30+ 2B power to the gaps and that's from a 7th round pick.

Overall there are 17 hitters who have played in 400+ games, 7 players who have 500+ hits and 3 players with 100+ HR.  3 pitchers have 40+ wins, 3 have 20+ saves, we have a Cy Young winner and have been runner up for MVP on 3seperate occasions.  Not bad for a class whom most players are 27 or recently turned 28. 

Make those draft lists, there are gems and late finds to be found!


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