Thursday, March 28, 2013

Jerry Burgess and the Lost Art of Control

There are several interesting facts, facets, statistics, metrics and situations within the game of baseball.  One of the basics is throwing.  Hitting a target.  Control.  The ability to throw a baseball accurately from one point to another.  Most players, especially pitchers, don't have a big problem with this.  If they do, they usually don't last long enough to be drafted and paid money to do so.  This is a story of a man, an enigma, something I cannot explain.  A story of virtue and intrigue and frustration.  A story where the ending is still untold.  The story of Jerry Burgess.  The story of control lost.  

Let me start this story by saying that Jerry Burgess was never and will never be an elite master in the art of control.  He is no Scott Hill, Man-Rod, Aicon, Bolden, Paradis or JTF.  Burgess was merely your average pitcher when it came to control.  He had average control for a starting pitcher, but with his electric stuff coming from 4 above average pitches and decent movement made him an upper echelon starting pitcher.  




This was apparent when he played his college ball at the University of Texas, was drafted in the 1st round and found his way to Madison via the BSA inaugural draft and made their club during the 2011 season.  In college he averaged 2.19 BB/9 innings which is very good.  Moving to A ball during the 2009 season he was striking out 10+ batters while keeping those walks down.  A similar BB/9 rate to college of 2.30 helped him move to AA that same season.  Moving to AAA he started walking more batters, but scouts say that was due to facing better hitters and keeping the rate below 3 was probably unattainable for a pitcher like him.  He spent 2010 in AAA before making his Major League debut in 2011 for Madison.

From 2012 to the middle of the 2015 season he would play for 4 different teams.  Madison would trade him to Hendersonville before the 2013 season where he would win a championship.  During the 2014 season the Hitmen would send him to El Paso in the famous Yokoyama trade.  He would spend nearly 1 year in El Paso before being traded to Jersey Shore.  During his first half year with El Paso he posted great numbers, he was the team's ace.  He won 10 games in 15 starts, but things started to change that 2nd year in Texas.  He struggled badly in 17 starts for the Diablos in 2015.  He went 2-6, posted an ERA of 5.56 and his control started flailing.  He walked 53 batters in 102.3 innings and an up til then career worst of only 1.68 K/BB.  Being an upcoming FA and Jersey making a play at the playoffs, El Paso dealt him for prospects and this seemed to calm him down......for not.

He turned around his 2015 season, winning 7 games in 15 starts, nearly doubling that K/BB ratio, all the up to 3.48.  He also had 2 key victories for the D-Bags in the playoffs and almost pitched them to a World Series title in Game 7 of the BSA World Series.  Jersey gave him a fat contract extension in 45 million dollars over 5 years.  We have heard rumors of alcohol, affairs, even a run in or two with the law since that off-season.  Nothing is documented, but when 2016 came around, the 29 year old Burgess who should be in his prime was.....different.  He started out walking more batters.  He was striking out similar hitters, giving up similar amount of hits, but the walks were killing him.

It was his 2nd start of the season when he would tie a CL record for walking 9 batters in a game on April 17th.  Jersey kept with him until nearly the All-Star break before finally sending him to the bullpen.  He finished the season getting 22 starts, walking a career high 91 batters in just 128.1 innings pitched.  Good for 6.38 BB/9, which was over 2 more than his career average.  What do you do with a pitcher who has seemed to have lost control and is owed 37 million over the next 4 years?  Jersey put on flyers with no takers so he returned to the team for the 2017 season.  With Art Ellis going out for the season during spring training it thrust Burgess back into the rotation.

Thus far in 2017 Burgess has received 3 starts.  The good news is that he has compiled a 2-0 record.  The bad news is in his 2nd start he tied his record for 9 BB in a game and currently has 16 walks and 16 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched and a WHIP of nearly 2.  This is on the verge of being ridiculous.  How does one simply lose control in the prime of his career?  Can you regain control?  Can he be trusted?  Jersey will have to make a decision weather Burgess can make steps to being a competent pitcher again.  For now Jersey plans to run him out in the 5th SP slot, simply because they don't have better options, but the time might come where anyone will be a better option.  

Fellow owner JJ Hoban had this to say about Burgess, "Burgess is the epitome of a good system. Many people will look back and wonder what could have been. He had once been looked at as a Ace, though many years of bad decisions not only led to Burgess losing control of his love, and social life, but also control of his pitches. Much of this can be attributed to the spiral of depression Jerry went through when he learned he was being traded to El Paso. Burgess was ready to set up a life in Tennessee when he heard the news, and shortly after a long legal battle with his wife ensued for his money and their daughter. Jerry was arrested later that year after being caught with an escort while in San Antonio on vacation. Jersey offered him what looks to be his last chance at a title and career. Jerry is no longer feared on the mound, and is just barely hanging onto his spot in the rotation, but through all this he remains upbeat that he will achieve his dream of a championship."

The art of control.  Getting the ball from point-a to point-b.  Such a simple thing to do....or is it?

GO D-BAGS    

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Meet Your 2017 Jersey Shore D-Bags

Another year has snuck upon us!  As we know Jersey had an early exit after getting embarrassed by Toronto in 5 games in the CLCS ending Jersey's attempt to repeat as CL Champions.  Jersey brings back a similar roster minus their high OBP catcher Luis Antonio Duran who took big money in free agency and is off to St. Charles.  Jersey also had a huge set back in Spring Training, losing veteran ace Art Ellis for what could end up being the entire season.  Ellis tore his rotator cuff on his pitching arm during a ST start.

The Pitching

Starters - After losing Ellis to injury, the depth we figured to have is now gone.  Can Macias and Ramos step up to be the 1-2 punch to lead Jersey back to the playoffs?

Dan Macias -  36 years old.  Came to Jersey in trade with Orlando before 2014 season.  Age is starting to show, can he hold up throughout the year?
2016 stats: 17-11, 4.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Contract: $9.09M.  Last year of contract, is upcoming FA.

Jose Ramos - 21 years old.  IFA signing 2013.  Jumped onto the the scene as a rookie last year to win 12 games.  Amazing control, still waiting to see "stuff" that averaged 9+ K/IP in AAA.
2016 stats: 12-3, 3.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP.
Contract: $1.82M.  Signed through 2020 season.

Rob Goodship - 30 years old.  Came to Jersey is Edison (Now Boston) as a waiver claim before the 2011 season.  Team career leader in wins.
2016 stats: 12-9, 4.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Contract: $3.79M.  Signed through 2020 season.

Greg Schaefer - 27 years old.  Came to Jersey via the Rule V Draft in 2011.  Still waiting for him to live up to potential.
2016 stats: 8-5, 4.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Contract: $2.38M.  Signed through 2020 season.

Jerry Burgess - 30 years old.  Came to Jersey in trade with El Paso (Now Irvine) during 2015 season.  Control seems have gotten worse.  Has a very large contract, which could cause problems in the future.
2016 stats: 8-8, 5.26 ERA, 1.71 WHIP.

Worth Noting: Without Ellis, the depth of having Burgess as a 6th starter is gone.  MR Kim has spot started before and SP Malone and SP Coronado would be the likely replacements if another starter goes down.

The Bullpen - Will continue to be a strong point in Jersey baseball.  The elite trio of Saenz, Gomes and Tapia still anchor the backend while younger faces fill the middle relief.

Jose Ruiz - 24 years old.  Was drafted in the inaugural draft by Jersey.  Hard throwing righty coming off his best season as a pro.
2016 stats: 6-2, 2.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP.  
Contract: $900K.  Signed through 2020 season.

Hyo-Chin Kim - 20 years old.  IFA signing 2013.  As noted he has stamina to spot start if needed.  Only lefty in the pen besides CL Saenz.  Can touch 100 MPH with fastball.
2016 stats: 3-0, 3.68ERA, 1.53 WHIP
Contract: $400K.  Arbitration eligible after the 2019 season.

Takafumi Ogusuku - 21 years old.  IFA signing 2013.  Another young hard thrower.  Split time between AAA and the ML club last season.
2016 stats: 1-0, 3.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.
Contract:  $400K.  Arbitration eligible after the 2018 season.  

Lucio Tapia - 32 years old.  Claimed off waivers from Whitewater (St. Louis) during 2010 season.  Steady arm who had a down year in 2016, looking for a rebound.  
2016 stats: 4-3, 4.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP.  
Contract: $3.36M.  Signed through 2018 season.

Jose Gomes - 30 years old.  Drafted by Jersey in inaugural draft.  Set-up man but has closer stuff.  Had career season last year.
2016 stats: 10-1, 1.31 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.
Contract: $3.61M.  Signed through the 2018 season, with the last year being a player option.

Jaime Saenz - 31 years old.  Drafted by Jersey in inaugural draft.  This will be his 2nd year as team's closer.
2016 stats - 5-8, 40 saves, 2.31 ERA, 1.14 WHIP.
Contract: $3.41M, Signed through the 2018 season.

Worth Noting: Jersey probably has more young talent in the minors at the MR position than any team in the BSA. With the core big 3 getting older there are a lot of possible replacements.  Lara, Zong, Mateo and  Cortez are just the first wave of players we will probably catch a glimpse of this season.

The Catchers - Gone is Luis Antonio Duran and his good power and eye.  The new starter is Goyer who was acquired from Cleveland last season.

Warren Goyer - 28 years old - Acquired in a trade with Cleveland during the 2016 season.  Goyer has big time power but strikes out a lot.
2016 stats: .237/.327/.453  30 HR, 91 RBI.
Contract: $1.61M, Signed through 2020 season.

Albert Lopez - 29 years old.  Signed a MLC during the 2011 season.  Another year as the primary backup.  Got more playing time than ever in 2015 due to Duran injuries.  
2016 stats: .252/.316/.417.  5 HR, 24 RBI.
Contract: 650K, arbitration eligible after the season. 

Worth Noting:  Dave Smith was signed in the off season and sits in AAA with Tomas Guiterrez, both would be viable backup options if either catcher is shelved due to injury.

1st Basemen - Doyle entrenched at 1st base and should be there for a long time.

Matt Doyle - 27 years old.  1st round pick, 2011 season.  One of the biggest power sources in the BSA.  Had a "down" season and still hit 38 HR.  Cleanup man every GM dreams of having.
2016 stats: .290/.386/.532.  38 HR, 141 RBI.
Contract: $5.7M, Signed through 2021 season.

Manny Romero - 29 years old.  Drafted in the inaugural draft as a 22 year old prospect. Lefty masher and primary DH and backup.  
2016 stats: .294/.385/.563. 12 HR, 41 RBI.
Contract: $3.69M, signed through 2018 season.

Worth noting:  3B Alberto Perez may see a lot of time at 1B while Doyle is DH'ing.  It gives Jersey a much better defender at 1B. Derrick Wright and youngster Kisuki are the primary replacements waiting in the wings.

2nd Basemen - Occupied by reigning MVP and Triple Crown winner Bryant.  He is also the only 2nd basemen listed on the roster.

Mike Bryant - 29 years old.  1st round pick, 2010 season.  Giant season last year, one of the best in BSA history, including first year with 40+ HR.  Current career leader in batting average in BSA history, keeps getting better.
2016 stats: .347/.407/.618.  40 HR, 158 RBI.
Contract: $5.1M, signed through 2021 season with the last year being a team option.

Worth noting: If Bryant went down there are really no natural replacements for him.  Bailey plays a poor 2nd in AAA.  Logically utility man Taylor would take his spot.

Shortstop - Schroeder has taken over as the primary SS after busting onto the scene as a rookie.  Morrow and Taylor make this a good deep group.

Lawrence Schroeder - 25 years old.  1st round pick, 2014 season.  Great range for a defensive SS.  Has above average contact and power, could be a good one.
2016 stats: .332/.381/.532.  9 HR, 34 RBI.
Contract: $400K.  Arbitration eligible after the 2020 season.

Adam Morrow - 28 years old.  2nd round pick, 2010 draft.  Very down season after winning ROY in 2015.  Had a better 2nd half and strong spring.  Should see a lot of time weather it be at SS or 3B.  
2016 stats: .214/.356/.264. 37 RBI, 78 BB.
Contract: $980K. Signed through 2020 season.

Marvin Taylor - 31 years old.  Signed as a FA, April 2011.  Your typical utility man.  Plays every IF position above average with great range and hands.  Has an above average eye and lacks power.  
2016 stats: .246/.370/.361.
Contract: $895K.  Signed through 2020 season.

Worth Noting: A lot of options here, not to mention another 1st round pick Fabrice Brodeur is currently in AAA.  He more fits the mold of a utility type mold with above average contact.

3rd Basemen - Perez is the only one listed on the roster, but Morrow should see a lot of time here with Perez starting the year on the DL and played 1st base as well.

Alberto Perez - 29 years old.  Drafted in the 47th round of the inaugural draft by Jersey.  Had 194 hits last year while started at 3B/1B.  Will miss first 3-4 weeks of season with injury. Limits strikeouts and is a great core player.
2016 stats: .316/.380/.446.  44 2B, 12 HR, 81 RBI.
Contract: $1.77M.  Signed through 2020 season.

The Outfield - Instead of breaking this down we just went by all players who can play in the OF.  For the first time in 4 years you will not see Leon Foster who became a free agent and signed a deal with the LA Bruins.  

Sergio Rodriguez - 29 years old.  Drafted by Jersey in the inaugural draft.  Rangy, speedy OF who has a knack for the extra base hit and the strikeout.  
2016 stats: .269/.346/.480.  17 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR, 47 RBI.  
Contract: $4.4M.  Arbitration eligible after the season.

Fransisco Torres - 21 years old. IFA signing 2013.  Former top prospect.  Above average speed and range, plays a very good LF.  Walks a lot and likes the gap, should start vs RHP.
2016 stats: .263/.375/.404.   2 HR, 18 RBI, 20 BB in 114 AB.
Contract: $400K.  Arbitration eligible after the 2019 season.

Tim Duncan - 28 years old.  Came to Jersey in trade with LA during the 2014 season.  After finally getting his shot, Duncan has just been.....meh.  Probably a 4th OF on the team this year.
2016 stats: .261/.319/.366.  2 HR, 18 RBI, 5 SB in 153 AB.
Contract: $400K. Arbitration eligible after the 2018 season.

Dave Dodd - 22 years old.  Signed a MLC during the 2013 season, former 2nd round pick of Reno.  Killed AAA for  1+ months last season before call up.  Huge power.  25 HR in 441 AB in rookie season might just be a glimpse of what he could put up.  Decent range and above average speed. Kid could be a star.
2016 stats: .254/.313/.497.  25 HR, 74 RBI.
Contract: $1.94M.  Signed through 2020 season.

Jose Ortiz - 28 years old.  Drafted in the Rule V draft, 2015 via Reno.  Lefty with great gap power, above average contact and hates to K.  Defense is is so-so and he lacks true speed but if he hits, he will find the at bats in the lineup.
2016 stats: .242/.301/.326.  9 2B, 13 RBI.
Contract: $400K. Arbitration eligible after current season.

Peter Larson - 30 years old.  Came to Jersey in the same trade with LA that brought Duncan over in 2014.  Another lefty.  Above average contact and gap.  Has an elite eye among the best in the BSA.  Does not hit left handed pitching well.
2016 stats: .260/.398/.365.  102 BB, 33 2B, 3 HR, 45 RBI.
Contract: $5.0M.  Signed through 2019 season, the last year being a player option.

Worth Noting: The OF continues to be very deep for Jersey.  The biggest prospect in their system and likely candidate to take over in CF is 21 year old Fransisco Ibarra who is in AAA after ripping up AA pitching last year.  Other recognizable names in AAA are Taylor, Kino and Al Ryan.  A lot of different options if players do not perform.

Another very strong roster from Jersey.  Losing Ellis will hurt, but we have confidence that this roster can take Jersey to their 3rd straight playoff appearance and hopefully further than they have gone before.


GO D-BAGS