Before the season I made a lofty goal for Jersey outfielder Dave Dodd. I predicted he would build on his 30 HR, 105 RBI season of a year ago and increase that to 42 HR and 135 RBI. Lofty projections. Now that we sit mid way through August starting down at the last 6 weeks of the season, it's finally time to start looking at some of these projections.
While the super power that I had projected hasn't quite come around yet, Dodd is a on projected pace to hit 32 HR this year. Yes, that would only be 2 more than he hit last year but the encouraging numbers come in his extra base hits. In only 440 AB this season Dodd has doubled 39 times, which is 9 more times than last year in 170 less AB, and the most in the CL this season. He also has 6 triples compared to the 5 he totaled all of last season. That puts him on pace for 53 doubles, 8 triples and 32 HR and on pace for 325 total bases which ranks him 6th in the CL.
At only 24 years old I think it's possible to expect we haven't see his full potential yet. In his 2nd season Dodd took a step back in slugging and OPS, even though his batting average and OBP both rose. In his 3rd season we have seen improvement in all of these areas. Batting average is up 11 points at .277, where he he .266 a year. OBP is up 25 points and Dodd is on pace to walk 15 more times than last year. With all the added extra base hits his slugging percentage has shot up to .557, which is 78 points higher than last year, and with the additions across the board the OPS is over .900 at .912, over 100 point increase.
After setting the BSA record for strikeouts in a season with 204, Dodd's contact rate has gone up, and while the strikeouts are still very much there, he is on pace to K 180 times. That would be 24 times and 12% less than a season ago. Even his work in the field has increased. His ZR in RF for all of last season was +6.5, which is respectable, but this season in 46 less games he has upped that number to +10.7.
While Dodd narrowly missed out on making the CL All-Star team this year, we see All-Star nods in his future. If he can keep improving, which we believe he can, he could be a very special player. I may have predicted the 40 HR season a season too soon, we very well could see some of those doubles turn into HR, but right now with a line of .277/.355/.557, which RH starter out there wants to face he and Bryant in the same inning?
GO D-BAGS
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Can Bryant Make Case For 3rd Straight MVP?
Before Jorge Martinez went down this past week he was all but a shoe in to take home this year's CL MVP award and end our very own Mike Bryant's 2-run at being voted the most valuable player in the league. Martinez was on pace to put up one of the best season's WAR wise that the BSA has ever seen. With him being injured at that play at the plate, the doctors put him on a 5 week timeline, which means he would miss close to 20% of the Pikes games this year. Is this enough for Bryant and others to gain ground and pass the Martinez? Or will it not be enough?
It's been well documented that Bryant had a terrible start to this season. As we have covered in a past blog his April numbers were this: His April numbers ended like this: .173/.214/.373. 1 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 19 RBI and 24K in 110 AB. Not numbers you expect to see with a player as consistent has him and with his track record. Since then he has taken major strides. He won the CL Batter of the Month award in May, was voted into the AS Game and has hit over 330 in every month of the season since April. What really has put him back in the race is his last 15 games though.
Going into the game on 7/23 with Madison, Bryant had a stat line of .296/.344/.528. Respectable, sure, but all below career averages. In the next 15 games, Bryant would get a hit in 13 of them and all 14 of those would be multi-hit games and 8 of them would be three hit games. He would hit 5 HR, 16 RBI to go with 11 doubles and one triple. After the Bags most recent game against St. Louis on 8/7, another 2 hit game for Bryant, his triple slash line stood at: .326/.369/.585. So 15 games, adding 30 points of batting average, 25 points of OBP and 57 points of SLG. This puts him Top 5 in batting average, slugging percentage, HR, RBI while he leads the league in hits. He is on pace to lead the BSA in total bases for the 4th time in 5 years as well. He is even more valuable to his team this year after the loss of superstar Matt Doyle. The Bags have no one that will hit his lowest numbers of the past 2 years when he did win the award. The downside is of course, his defense. Usually an above average fielder, Bryant has committed more errors this year than any year in the past and his ZR is by far at a career worse -6.2. This has even caused Jersey to DH him from time to time. This of course brings down his WAR, which is a big number to use by a lot of voters. Can he continue on his recent tear and climb up those leaderboards? Can he power his team past a handful of contenders for a playoff spot? All this is possible and will be something many people will have their eyes on for the rest of the season.
GO D-BAGS
Monday, October 7, 2013
Jersey Sends 3 to All-Star Game; Jose Ramos Timeline
For the 7th year in a row Jersey Shore has sent multiple people to represent the team in the annual All Star game. The contest was held earlier this month on the 9th of July. The CL team behind very strong pitching blanked the NL All-Stars 2-0, in only their 2nd win in the series. Representing Jersey Shore were 2B Mikey Bryant, C Warren Goyer and SP Jerry Burgess.
After a terrible start Bryant and a terrible month of April, Bryant stepped up his game like we have seen him time and time again and won Player of the Month for the CL in the month of May. Even with his hot May and above average June he was still on the cusp of not making the team due to Jorge Martinez's MVP type season and the continued success of Joe Sanders. Bryant was rewarded one of the last spots on the team. This is Bryant's 5th selection to the AS team, putting him in some very good company beside some of the BSA's best players.
Goyer has obviously liked his time he has spent in Jersey. After becoming the team's starting backstop last year and making his 1st AS team on the way to 40+ HR, he followed that up this season with his 2nd straight AS game nod. While he isn't on pace to best 40 HR again, he has been quite consistent. In all 3 months thus far this season he has clubbed 6 HR and between 15-18 RBI. At his current pace he would hit 36 HR and drive in 96 runs.
The last of the 3 All Stars took a different road to get there. After trading for SP Jerry Burgess from El Paso in 2015, Jersey was hoping they were getting a legitimate SP to join Macias and Ellis. Burgess pitched good enough down the stretch and in the playoffs to earn a 5 year extension that off season, and that's when his well documented struggles started. 2016 was a trying year where his control was almost completely lost. He only started 22 games and came out of the bullpen 12 times to a ERA of 5.20 plus and Jersey wondered what to do with him. He cleared waivers before the playoffs last year and started this year in the bullpen with Jersey's plethora of starting pitching. He entered the bullpen when Jose Ramos went down with injury and hasn't looked back since. While his control is has not been great, it's better than his career average and he is striking out people at all time high. He leads all starters in the BSA with 11.39 K/9 and only trails Lebel of Toronto and Haynes of LA in strikeouts this season. For this Burgess has earned his first career nod to the AS game.
Speaking of the injury who allowed Burgess another change at the starting rotation, Jose Ramos will start his injury rehab tonight after missing 4 months with a torn labrum in his shoulder. With Jersey in a very tight 5-team race, it couldn't have come at a better team. GM Swain said that a timetable for his return isn't known yet, but depends on results we see from Ramos in AAA. What we know from previous rehab stints is Ramos will not be rushed, and could use the entire 30 day rehab limit on pitchers. Even if Ramos does use the full 30 days he would return towards the end of August and have 5.5-6 weeks to help his team down the stretch. Swain has said that this will likely be the teams "trade deadline" move as no other big moves plan on being made.
As of right now, July 25th, Jersey is tied for the WC lead with fellow division rival St. Louis and Vista/Seattle. They are 1 game up on Toronto and 2 up on Kansas City. This looks like it might come down to one of the better races we have seen in the BSA thus far.
GO D-BAGS
After a terrible start Bryant and a terrible month of April, Bryant stepped up his game like we have seen him time and time again and won Player of the Month for the CL in the month of May. Even with his hot May and above average June he was still on the cusp of not making the team due to Jorge Martinez's MVP type season and the continued success of Joe Sanders. Bryant was rewarded one of the last spots on the team. This is Bryant's 5th selection to the AS team, putting him in some very good company beside some of the BSA's best players.
Goyer has obviously liked his time he has spent in Jersey. After becoming the team's starting backstop last year and making his 1st AS team on the way to 40+ HR, he followed that up this season with his 2nd straight AS game nod. While he isn't on pace to best 40 HR again, he has been quite consistent. In all 3 months thus far this season he has clubbed 6 HR and between 15-18 RBI. At his current pace he would hit 36 HR and drive in 96 runs.
The last of the 3 All Stars took a different road to get there. After trading for SP Jerry Burgess from El Paso in 2015, Jersey was hoping they were getting a legitimate SP to join Macias and Ellis. Burgess pitched good enough down the stretch and in the playoffs to earn a 5 year extension that off season, and that's when his well documented struggles started. 2016 was a trying year where his control was almost completely lost. He only started 22 games and came out of the bullpen 12 times to a ERA of 5.20 plus and Jersey wondered what to do with him. He cleared waivers before the playoffs last year and started this year in the bullpen with Jersey's plethora of starting pitching. He entered the bullpen when Jose Ramos went down with injury and hasn't looked back since. While his control is has not been great, it's better than his career average and he is striking out people at all time high. He leads all starters in the BSA with 11.39 K/9 and only trails Lebel of Toronto and Haynes of LA in strikeouts this season. For this Burgess has earned his first career nod to the AS game.
Speaking of the injury who allowed Burgess another change at the starting rotation, Jose Ramos will start his injury rehab tonight after missing 4 months with a torn labrum in his shoulder. With Jersey in a very tight 5-team race, it couldn't have come at a better team. GM Swain said that a timetable for his return isn't known yet, but depends on results we see from Ramos in AAA. What we know from previous rehab stints is Ramos will not be rushed, and could use the entire 30 day rehab limit on pitchers. Even if Ramos does use the full 30 days he would return towards the end of August and have 5.5-6 weeks to help his team down the stretch. Swain has said that this will likely be the teams "trade deadline" move as no other big moves plan on being made.
As of right now, July 25th, Jersey is tied for the WC lead with fellow division rival St. Louis and Vista/Seattle. They are 1 game up on Toronto and 2 up on Kansas City. This looks like it might come down to one of the better races we have seen in the BSA thus far.
GO D-BAGS
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