Another Milestone for Bryant; 200+ Hits in 5 Straight Seasons

Even though Jersey fell out of the playoff race earlier this month and will finish with the worst record in 7 years, there still are a few bright spots for the team.  One, of course, being 2-time MVP Mike Bryant.  While this season didn't match the previous two in which he was voted most valuable player, he did slug 40+ HR for the 3rd straight year, and finish in the Top 5, and possibly Top 3 in all Triple Crown categories.  

While Bryant doesn't walk and get on base as much as Jorge Martinez, no one can deny the talent Bryant has with the bat.  With his recent run of multi-hit games, Bryant's hit total stands at 206 with 4 games left to play this season for the D-Bags.  This marks the 5th straight year he has surpassed the 200 hit mark, making him the first player in BSA history to do so.  The only other player in the history of the league with five 200+ hit season is BSA great John Crowe.  Since Bryant's god awful April he has hit .350/.410/.630.  Not too shabby.  Bryant is also on pace to lead the BSA in total bases for the 4th time in 5 years.  There's no doubt he is the heart and soul of this offense.  At age 30, which seems to be the point of no return for hitters in the BSA, Bryant showed no point in slowing down. Jersey brass hopes he can kick that trend and remain one of the most feared hitters in the game into his mid 30's, but only time will tell on that front.

GO D-BAGS

GO

John Warner Named CL Player of Month for August

After trading Superstar Matt Doyle in the off season it opened a huge hole at 1B and in the middle of the lineup.  Alberto Perez has a glove at 1st base and while he isn't a slouch with the bat, he isn't a threat either.  Plans to replace his power came from rookie Fransisco Ibarra who showed he can hit in AAA, but all intents and purposes had no BSA experience.  Before the start of the season Jersey dealt big time power prospect Fransisco Calderon to the LA Bruins for vet John Warner.

Warner had his glory days back in the 2012-2013 season while playing for the Knights of New York before being signed by the Bruins.  After having arguably the worst season of his  career last year, Jersey hoped bringing him into a hitter's park like the Ballpark by the Shore would help his numbers and help the whole created in the lineup.  About being shuffled about the lineup getting over 30 AB hitting 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th during the season, Warner's numbers were consistent April-July, but nothing to write home about.  That's until August rolled around. 

During August Warner was one of 3 players to hit 11 HR during the month, and that also tied 2 others for the most HR for a month in 2018.  It included a 3-game HR stretch vs STL and SCS 8/7-8/9 and his 2nd mutli-HR game of the season in a 11-6 win @TOR on 8/22.  Surprisingly this is the first time in his career that he has been crowned Player of the Month in the BSA.  During the month he raised his slugging percentage 52 points and as of 9/12 sits tied for 6th in the CL in HR with 31. It's the first time he has reached the 30 HR mark since the 2014 season.  

By the end of the season Dave Dodd and Warren Goyer should join Warner and Mike Bryant with 30 HR.  This would mark the 2nd straight season and only the 2nd time in team history that 4 players hit the 30 HR mark.  With the up and coming Fransisco Ibarra, maybe next year we might see the 1st time a Jersey club has featured five members of the 30 HR club.  

For now as 2018 winds down and Jersey is looking towards missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, we can still hope for a good finish.  Mikey Bryant is looking for his 5th straight 200 hit season, rookie Sergio Martinez has really come on late to show he might be the next big thing and Dave Dodd needs 3 doubles to break the all time Jersey record for doubles in a season.  Just a few things to watch for as the season winds down.

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The Maturation of Dave "Diamond" Dodd

Before the season I made a lofty goal for Jersey outfielder Dave Dodd.  I predicted he would build on his 30 HR, 105 RBI season of a year ago and increase that to 42 HR and 135 RBI.  Lofty projections.  Now that we sit mid way through August starting down at the last 6 weeks of the season, it's finally time to start looking at some of these projections.  

While the super power that I had projected hasn't quite come around yet, Dodd is a on projected pace to hit 32 HR this year.  Yes, that would only be 2 more than he hit last year but the encouraging numbers come in his extra base hits.  In only 440 AB this season Dodd has doubled 39 times, which is 9 more times than last year in 170 less AB, and the most in the CL this season.  He also has 6 triples compared to the 5 he totaled all of last season. That puts him on pace for 53 doubles, 8 triples and 32 HR and on pace for 325 total bases which ranks him 6th in the CL.

At only 24 years old I think it's possible to expect we haven't see his full potential yet.  In his 2nd season Dodd took a step back in slugging and OPS, even though his batting average and OBP both rose.  In his 3rd season we have seen improvement in all of these areas.  Batting average is up 11 points at .277, where he he .266 a year.  OBP is up 25 points and Dodd is on pace to walk 15 more times than last year.  With all the added extra base hits his slugging percentage has shot up to .557, which is 78 points higher than last year, and with the additions across the board the OPS is over .900 at .912, over 100 point increase.  

After setting the BSA record for strikeouts in a season with 204, Dodd's contact rate has gone up, and while the strikeouts are still very much there, he is on pace to K 180 times.  That would be 24 times and 12% less than a season ago.  Even his work in the field has increased.  His ZR in RF for all of last season was +6.5, which is respectable, but this season in 46 less games he has upped that number to +10.7.

While Dodd narrowly missed out on making the CL All-Star team this year, we see All-Star nods in his future.   If he can keep improving, which we believe he can, he could be a very special player.  I may have predicted the 40 HR season a season too soon, we very well could see some of those doubles turn into HR, but right now with a line of .277/.355/.557, which RH starter out there wants to face he and Bryant in the same inning?

GO D-BAGS

Can Bryant Make Case For 3rd Straight MVP?

Before Jorge Martinez went down this past week he was all but a shoe in to take home this year's CL MVP award and end our very own Mike Bryant's 2-run at being voted the most valuable player in the league. Martinez was on pace to put up one of the best season's WAR wise that the BSA has ever seen.  With him being injured at that play at the plate, the doctors put him on a 5 week timeline, which means he would miss close to 20% of the Pikes games this year.  Is this enough for Bryant and others to gain ground and pass the Martinez? Or will it not be enough?

It's been well documented that Bryant had a terrible start to this season.  As we have covered in a past blog his April numbers were this: His April numbers ended like this: .173/.214/.373.  1 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 19 RBI and 24K in 110 AB.  Not numbers you expect to see with a player as consistent has him and with his track record.  Since then he has taken major strides.  He won the CL Batter of the Month award in May, was voted into the AS Game and has hit over 330 in every month of the season since April.  What really has put him back in the race is his last 15 games though.  

Going into the game on 7/23 with Madison, Bryant had a stat line of .296/.344/.528.  Respectable, sure, but all below career averages.  In the next 15 games, Bryant would get a hit in 13 of them and all 14 of those would be multi-hit games and 8 of them would be three hit games.  He would hit 5 HR, 16 RBI to go with 11 doubles and one triple.  After the Bags most recent game against St. Louis on 8/7, another 2 hit game for Bryant, his triple slash line stood at: .326/.369/.585.  So 15 games, adding 30 points of batting average, 25 points of OBP and 57 points of SLG.  This puts him Top 5 in batting average, slugging percentage, HR, RBI while he leads the league in hits.  He is on pace to lead the BSA in total bases for the 4th time in 5 years as well.  He is even more valuable to his team this year after the loss of superstar Matt Doyle.  The Bags have no one that will hit his lowest numbers of the past 2 years when he did win the award.  The downside is of course, his defense.  Usually an above average fielder, Bryant has committed more errors this year than any year in the past and his ZR is by far at a career worse -6.2.  This has even caused Jersey to DH him from time to time.  This of course brings down his WAR, which is a big number to use by a lot of voters.  Can he continue on his recent tear and climb up those leaderboards?  Can he power his team past a handful of contenders for a playoff spot?  All this is possible and will be something many people will have their eyes on for the rest of the season.

GO D-BAGS

Jersey Sends 3 to All-Star Game; Jose Ramos Timeline

For the 7th year in a row Jersey Shore has sent multiple people to represent the team in the annual All Star game.  The contest was held earlier this month on the 9th of July.  The CL team behind very strong pitching blanked the NL All-Stars 2-0, in only their 2nd win in the series. Representing Jersey Shore were 2B Mikey Bryant, C Warren Goyer and SP Jerry Burgess.

After a terrible start Bryant and a terrible month of April, Bryant stepped up his game like we have seen him time and time again and won Player of the Month for the CL in the month of May.  Even with his hot May and above average June he was still on the cusp of not making the team due to Jorge Martinez's MVP type season and the continued success of Joe Sanders.  Bryant was rewarded one of the last spots on the team.  This is Bryant's 5th selection to the AS team, putting him in some very good company beside some of the BSA's best players.

Goyer has obviously liked his time he has spent in Jersey.  After becoming the team's starting backstop last year and making his 1st AS team on the way to 40+ HR, he followed that up this season with his 2nd straight AS game nod.  While he isn't on pace to best 40 HR again, he has been quite consistent.  In all 3 months thus far this season he has clubbed 6 HR and between 15-18 RBI.  At his current pace he would hit 36 HR and drive in 96 runs.  

The last of the 3 All Stars took a different road to get there.  After trading for SP Jerry Burgess from El Paso in 2015, Jersey was hoping they were getting a legitimate SP to join Macias and Ellis.  Burgess pitched good enough down the stretch and in the playoffs to earn a 5 year extension that off season, and that's when his well documented struggles started.  2016 was a trying year where his control was almost completely lost.  He only started 22 games and came out of the bullpen 12 times to a ERA of 5.20 plus and Jersey wondered what to do with him.  He cleared waivers before the playoffs last year and started this year in the bullpen with Jersey's plethora of starting pitching.  He entered the bullpen when Jose Ramos went down with injury and hasn't looked back since.  While his control is has not been great, it's better than his career average and he is striking out people at all time high.  He leads all starters in the BSA with 11.39 K/9 and only trails Lebel of Toronto and Haynes of LA in strikeouts this season.  For this Burgess has earned his first career nod to the AS game. 

Speaking of the injury who allowed Burgess another change at the starting rotation, Jose Ramos will start his injury rehab tonight after missing 4 months with a torn labrum in his shoulder.  With Jersey in a very tight 5-team race, it couldn't have come at a better team.  GM Swain said that a timetable for his return isn't known yet, but depends on results we see from Ramos in AAA.  What we know from previous rehab stints is Ramos will not be rushed, and could use the entire 30 day rehab limit on pitchers.   Even if Ramos does use the full 30 days he would return towards the end of August and have 5.5-6 weeks to help his team down the stretch.  Swain has said that this will likely be the teams "trade deadline" move as no other big moves plan on being made.

As of right now, July 25th, Jersey is tied for the WC lead with fellow division rival St. Louis and Vista/Seattle.  They are 1 game up on Toronto and 2 up on Kansas City.  This looks like it might come down to one of the better races we have seen in the BSA thus far.  

GO D-BAGS

8 years, 8 picks; Jersey Shore 1st Round History

We just finished our 8th first round amatuer draft in the BSA since inagural 2010 season.  The people in Jersey don't take drafting lightly and consider it a key piece to building a franchise.  Let's look back at the 1st round picks that Jersey has made, and where they are today:

2010 - 21st overall - 2B Mike Bryant.  The 4 year college player spent just less than 3 seasons in the minors before debuting just before his 25th birthday.  In the 4 full seasons since then he has 4 all-star appearances, finished 2nd in MVP voting twice and won the award the past two seasons.  He currently holds every batting record in the Jersey Shore record book.  His contract will keep him starting at 2B for the D-Bags for at least the next 3 seasons.  It's likely he retires in a Jersey uniform.

2011 - 18th overall - 1B Matt Doyle.  Another 4 year college player out of the Texas.  Doyle debuted for the D-Bags in May of the 2014 season and hasn't looked back since. He finished runner up to Luis Gonzalez of Toronto in back and force race.  He became a force with Bryant in the lineup and led the BSA in HR in his 2nd year with 44.  After four seasons with Jersey, they surprisingly shipped him off to Toronto in the Jose Lara trade.  Doyle is currently tied for the lead in HR in the league and will likely be voted to his 4th all star game later today.

2012 - 22nd overall - CF Ernesto Barzaga.  After going infield for two years, the Bags switched up and went with a rangy and speed CF in Barzaga.  While he didn't have one batting tool that stood out, his contact, gap, power and eye were all average or a tick above average.  He turned out to be a bust.  He struggled mightily in A ball as a 22 and 23 year old in his first two seasons.  As a 24 year he was tried in AA but struggled even more.  At 25 he finally had a successful season in A ball, but by that time his potential had gotten worse and looked like he might turn into a career minor leaguer.  He was eventually dropped by the D-Bags and retired.  A rare early pick miss for Jersey.

2013 - 20th overall - 3B Richard Coker.  Coker was the first HS player Jersey selected in the amateur draft.  After 1 year at Butler HS, he showed his nack for getting on base.  A high average and great eye as well as potential to play an above average 3B made him a 1st round pick.  He spent the last month of 2013 in A ball and less than a month there in 2014 before being promoted to AA.  He struggled a lot his first year in AA, but he was given the starting position.  He picked up ten-fold in 2015 improving that contact but the eye was still behind.  We started to see it come around in 2016 when a week or so before the trade deadline he was sent as the main piece to Cleveland in the trade for C Warren Goyer.  After spending close to a season in the AAA for the Monsters he was recalled.  This season he is having a breakout year and could be looking at an All-Star spot.

2014 - 28th overall - SS Lawrence Schroeder.  Playing an unprecedented 5 years at Virginia, with his skills with the bat and glove, Jersey was lucky he dropped to them at 28.  He played 81 games at AA, flashing some power but mainly that contact to move up to AAA in the season after he was drafted.  He thrived in a full season in AAA, hitting the gaps and hitting for power. The only thing that bothered Jersey management is the 150+ strikeouts he accumulated.  In 2016 he spent 105 games in AAA, dropping the K rate a little, but raising his batting average 60 points to .347, which earned him a promotion to the big league club.  He played 48 games in a Jersey uniform his rookie year and hit well, very well and earned the starting job.  He struggled in 2017 but did show promise hitting 48 2B, 6 3B, and 14 HR.  This season he started off slow but picked up more recently winning his first POTW award as well as having his first 5-hit game.  He is currently sideline by an injury but should still be in consideration for an All-Star position.

2015 - 25th overall - SS Fabrice Brodeur.  Another 4 year college player who not only had skill at playing SS, but all over the infield.  Above average speed, above average contact, decent gap and above average eye for striking out made him a good pick.  He like many other Jersey players struggled early on to only bust out in his 2nd to 3rd season. The year after he was drafted he crushed AA pitching and earned a promotion to AAA. Now in his 3rd year, 2nd full year in AAA, it seems he has found it. Walks are up, K's are down, and he is hitting near a league best .377.  He is also leading the AAA International League in WAR at the moment.  With the recent injury to Schroeder, Brodeur was recently called and will start his first games in a Jersey uniform for tomorrow's sim.

2016 - 31st overall - SP Gianluigi Ciottone.  A 4 year college starter at Nebraska, Jersey was surprised to find him on the board at 31.  Despite not having a good 3rd pitch, with the depth of SP in their minors Jersey hopped on the chance to grab him. The minors have been puzzling for Ciottone.  He has struggled in both AA and A in what is his now 3rd minor league season.  He is currently 24 year old pitching in A ball, which is never a good sign but it appears things might be headed on the right track.  His K/9 and BB/9 are the best they have ever been and his FIP is 2 runs better than his ERA.  He might be headed towards bust land, but we will give him another year to see if he can turn into anything before putting that label on him.

2017 - 32nd overall - SP Roland Martin.  Martin marked Jersey's 2nd time to select a SP as their first round pick, and the first time they went HS SP as a 1st rounder. Martin made 10 starts and 6 bullpen appearances last season in A ball, struggling, especially with control which was a staple of his in HS.  This season in 18 starts as a 20 year old in A ball, Martin seems to be slightly improving across the board.  Scouts are really impressed that he has picked up 2 MPH on his fastball than was previously seen in his HS games.  He was named the 63rd best prospect by OSA before the season.  His potentials say he should be a mid-rotation guy but with a little work he might some day be a top of the rotation man.  At 20 years old, he has a lot of time to develop and he will be one to watch in the coming years.

Omitting this year's draftees who haven't even signed yet, there are your 8 years of Jersey Shore 1st round picks.  You have the multi MVP winner, two all-stars, two young up and comers, one player just getting to his major league debut, two pitchers still in A ball and one bust out of the league.  Considering Jersey's draft position I would say they have done very well.  If Doyle and Coker will still in Jersey the IF of Doyle-Bryant-Schroeder-Coker would probably be ranked Top 3 in the BSA right now. Hopefully we see good things from the younger draftees.  Don't sleep on the draft, you can build franchises this way, even with late picks!

Go D-Bags 

2018 Jersey Shore Amatuer Draft

The only downside of finishing the 2017 season with BSA's best record (besides being knocked out in the first round) is that Jersey Shore would receive the last pick in the 2018 Rule IV draft held on July 1.  Drafting late in the draft hasn't been a problem so far for the D-Bags who have found some mid-late 1st round gems over the years.  Here we will break down Jersey's 2018 draft.

1st Round, 30th overall (acquired from LA) - 1B/C Owen Carter - When the LA Bruins signed MR Jose Gomes in the off season, the rights to their first round pick become the D-Bags with the type A compensation attached to him.  With LA's pick, GM Swain was very surprised to find Carter still available.  He was the best catcher in the draft and had really started to show his skills after 2 years at University of Arizona.  He was previously drafted in the 2015 draft, 12th overall, by the Kansas City Cougars, but they couldn't come to an agreement, so off to Tuscon he went.   Carter has an overall skill set of average contact, great gap power and above average HR power and eye.  His defense should come out to be average to play at the big league level.  The D-Bags really enjoyed the jump in HR and BB his senior season, hitting 12 HR and walking 47 times in only 48 games.  If everything goes to plan, Carter should be the heir apparent to catcher someday.

1st Round, 32nd overall - 1B/DH Sergio Barron.  Using their own first round pick, and the last in the round, Jersey selected high school 1B/DH Sergio Barron.  Barron who hails from Jefferson-Youngsville High School in Jefferson, NY, isn't your typical 19 year old.  At 6'3" and 250 pounds he is a force on the field.  While he lacks speed, he was drafted for his bat.  He compiled 37 HR, 111 RBI and 69/32 BB/K with a triple slash of .381/.485/.791.  His senior year his .435 average and .519 OBP ranked among the elite in at the HS level.  Jersey power hitters aren't known for their patience and limiting K's so Barron is a difference.  With being so young we might not see him for awhile, but one day this kid could be a force at the plate.

Supplemental Round, 50th overall - SP Michael Manning. Using the 2nd of 2 picks from the Gomes compensation the Bags selected High School pitching Manning out of Madawaska Valley HS. Manning sits 6'1, doesn't have the best stuff and but makes up for it with above average control and movement.  His fastball tops out at 89-90 and his forkball is best of his 4 below average pitches.  With some technique going into one of his pitches he might be able to pick up stuff while in the minors.   He never had a great season in high school on the surface but his 4 year FIP was 2.60, topping out a best 2.06 his senior year.  He carried a 8.29 K/BB ratio while giving up .55 HR/9.  While he doesn't look like front line material, if a little time goes into him he might be a mid to back-end rotation option.

2nd Round, 93rd overall - SP Jonathon Phillips.  For the 3rd time in 4 picks, Jersey reached for a high school player, selecting Phillips out of Butler HS. There's no easy way to say this, but Phillips was a beast his senior year.  He won the league's Outstanding Pitcher Award while finishing 8-0 in 8 starts, compiling a 1.87 ERA to go with a 0.79 WHIP and struck out 85 hitters in just 53 innings.  That included a 17-strikeout No-Hitter on May the 11th.  The downside for Phillips, is depsite his overwhelming velocity and fastball and his nasty slider, he lacks a 3rd pitch.  He does look a little wild, but got away with it HS with kids flailing away at pitches.  He will probably start in the minor leagues but I doubt he ever sees anytime in the bigs as a starter.  He could turn out to be a decent reliever though.

3rd Round, 128th overall - 1B Ryan McBride. McBride is an unathletic 1B who does have some skills as a hitter especially contact.  He won't hit for a ton of power, despite hitting 14 HR his senior year for the Iowa State Hawkeyes. If he can gain some power he could be a legit prospect, but if he pans out like his potential stacks up, he might start one day a team looking for a cheap 1B or DH option, but more than likely is a guy who puts up good-great numbers in AAA.

4th Round, 157th overall - LF David Murphy. Murphy is another high schooler who has speed and power.....and not much else.  In his 1 high school year he did hit over 300 with 13 HR, but he is a boom or bust player.  The type of player you find in the around the 150th pick in a draft.  Someone with a above average skill you could hope turns elite in his time in the minors.

There was nothing of note in the last 6 players and I would guess would be surprised if more than 2-3 of them made any roster.    Overall I give this draft a B.  It yielded a very nice looking player at a premium position, a potential above average power bat, and two pitchers who could pitch at the major league level one day.  Not great, but in an overall weak draft position picking at the end of every round, gems are hard to come by.  It will be fun watching Carter and Barron to see if they live up to those 1st round expectations that Jersey fans are accustomed to seeing.

GO D-BAGS