While there is still a day left in May it has been one of two drastically different halves.
First Half: 2-12
Second Half: 12-1
How does this happen? While a quick look at the team's played shows tougher opponents in the first half which helped added to the lopsided record, we go deeper inside the numbers.
Batting:
1st Half: Runs Scored: 66 Runs, 4.71 RPG (Including 12 run outburst vs. Madison) without Madison game, 4.15 RPG. Scored 2 or less runs 5 times.
2nd Half: Runs Scored: 84 Runs, 6.46 RPG. Scored 2 or less runs 2 times.
Synopsis: 4.71 RPG is just a tick under the CL league average of 4.8. While 4.15 RPG is just more than a half a run below league average you wouldn't expect this alone would lead to an abysmal 2-12 record.
Pitching:
1st Half: 91 runs allowed, 6.50 RPG. (Including 18 runs allowed vs Madison) without Madison game, 5.62 RPG. Allowed 2 or less runs 2 times.
2nd Half: 37 runs allowed, 2.85 RPG. Allowed 2 or less runs 7 times.
Now this is a drastic difference. No team can win ball games giving up 6.50 RPG, even one with a great offense. Do we blame this all on starters? relievers? We dug deeper:
1st Half: Starters RPG 4.21. ERA 5.52. This includes the odd game with Madison where Ellis lasted 2/3 IP and gave up 6 unearned runs.
Relievers: RPG 2.29. ERA 6.35.
The relievers were actually worse than the starters! Pretty much since the team's existence the bullpen has been the team's strong point. There were only 3 games in this 14 game stretch where the pen didn't allow a run to score.
Now let's take a look at 2nd half pitching:
2nd Half: Starters: RPG 2.54, ERA 3.26.
Relievers: RPG 0.31, ERA 1.25.
Both were considerably better but the relievers were the exact opposite than the first half of the month. In 13 games they allowed 4 runs, and had 9 games where they didn't allow a run to cross the plate.
Here's a chart that displays:
Now, we don't think the pitching is as bad as it was in the first half, especially the pen. On the other side of the coin we don't think the pitching is as good as they have been in the 2nd half. Regardless we feel it's closer to the 2nd half than the first half, and with a 14-13 record during this stretch, regressing back to the norm should result in more wins for the D-Bags.